Can Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating escape from ‘Daejang-dong Swamp’?

Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung listens to the remarks of lawmakers at the ‘Democratic Party Renewal, Political Reform Members Meeting’ held in Yeouido, Seoul on the afternoon of November 18. Parliamentary photojournalists

Elections are a battle of ‘majority plus one vote’. This is true in the case of bilateral confrontation.

Not even the majority of all voters. You only need one more vote for a majority of the voters present at the ballot box.

From a candidate’s point of view, the election of a member of the National Assembly or the head of a local government is different from the election. A general election or the head of a local government can run for a majority of constituency voters. Depending on how much the farmer usually puts in, he needs to secure 50,000 to 60,000 votes just like he gets fruit. The result depends easily on ‘how many times you usually put your face stamp on the big things and small events in the area and shake hands’. It is a structural constraint on which party candidate to run for, but it can be overcome with skill.

But elections are different. it’s an air battle It is not known whether a candidate’s campaign will lead to actual votes. A candidate’s path does not determine victory or defeat.

It’s a frame fight. The framing forces, such as the voters who did not support attacking the established media, do not change their minds.

Usually, it only reinforces the unity of existing supporters.

The 20th presidential election will be held on March 9 next year. As of November 20, there are 110 days left.

In politics, it is said that “a lot of time is left”, but when evaluated later, it may be that we are passing through a decisive moment that framed the results of the presidential election in the 20s.

After all, the 2007 presidential election?

“It should be over now.” Uhm Kyung-young, director of the Institute for the Spirit of the Age, said:

“In my view, one of the most important political landscapes is the trend of ideological tendencies by age group. The generation in which progressives have the upper hand is the only generation in their 40s. In most polls, Lee Jae-myung is in their 40s and Yoon Seok-yeol is in their 60s and 20s. Those in their 60s make up 28% of the total voters, but their turnout is high, making up 33-35% of the final voting results. On the other hand, the proportion of those in their 40s, taking into account the voting participation rate, is 17%. In the 2030 generation, Jae-myung Lee is at a 6:4 disadvantage. Even on the premise that the 50s are tight, Lee Jae-myung cannot win structurally. After all, why not go like the 2007 presidential election?”

But looking at past elections, the approval ratings have always fluctuated. It is not that there was not a moment of reversal, the so-called ‘Golden Cross’.

“In all elections since the 2000s, all candidates for the first place were elected three and a half to three months ago,” Eom said. Except for the reverse case of candidate Roh Moo-hyun in 2002,” he added. In the case of 2002, three weeks before the presidential election, on November 23rd, the then-representative of National Unity 21 was unified with Chung Mong-joon, and that was the ‘only’ case. .

To the question of ‘Can candidate Lee Jae-myung’s approval rating break out of the box?’, most of the election consultants, opinion experts, and political commentators contacted by the reporter responded, “It’s not easy.”

The theory that this election “will be the trial of the 2007 presidential election” is a prediction that Shin Cheol-woo, a current affairs critic, who served as the vice chairman of the Democratic Party’s policy committee, had put forward several months ago. On the phone with a reporter on November 17, he said, “You should be lucky that Seok-Yeol Yoon became a candidate. If I had become Hong Jun-pyo, the game would have already been over.”

“Yun Seok-yeol has only been in politics for three months and it has been revealed that there are many flaws in the process of the people’s power election, so there is still room to try. It will be a really difficult election for Lee Jae-myung because it is so high. Simply put, the people who film Seok-Yeol Yoon do not shoot because they like Seok-Yeol Yoon.”

He added that there is a misunderstanding between the Democratic Party and Democratic Party supporters in relation to the results of the People’s Power contest called ‘Election of Candidate Yoon Seok-yeol’.

“Isn’t it often called the power of old people? It is an analysis that the party sentiment won without reading the public sentiment, and the vested interests won. It is a mistake to think that it can induce the 2030 generation of Hong Joon-pyo, who is disappointed with the result, to support Lee Jae-myung. However, I am not going to the Democratic Party. The current situation is more aspirations for regime change.”

It is necessary to look a little deeper into the situation where the candidate approval rate is locked in a box and it is not easy to rebound.

Kang-yun Lee, director of the Korea Institute of Social Opinion (KSOI), says that there are three keywords for the increase in Yun Seok-yeol’s approval rating when comparing the results of the three-week public opinion polls back and forth based on the election date of the last People’s Power candidate (November 5). Men and 30s, Seoul. For example, in their 30s, Yoon Seok-yeol’s approval rating jumped from 19.4% on October 29th to 35.5% on November 5th to 45.4% on November 12th. It is rising sharply by more than 10 percentage points before and after the election of candidates. So is Seoul. 32.5% → 47.3% → 52.5%.

“On the other hand, candidate Lee Jae-myung has been falling for three weeks in a row when looking at his political base in Incheon, Gyeonggi Province (37.4% → 35.7% → 35.1%). The approval ratings for other candidates also tend to decrease as the People’s Power candidates are confirmed. In the end, most of the supporters made a decision, and it should be said that only the floating class remained, but the quality of the approval rating is the problem.”

On the morning of November 12, presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea greets party representatives Song Young-gil and other participants before departing in front of the main office of the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul.  Parliamentary photojournalists

On the morning of November 12, presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party of Korea greets party representatives Song Young-gil and other participants before departing in front of the main office of the National Assembly in Yeouido, Seoul. Parliamentary photojournalists

The reason for the lack of approval ratings is the suspicion of large-scale movement

What is the cause of the stagnant or stagnant approval rating for Candidate Jae-myung Lee? Most experts point out the problem of ‘handling the suspicion of Daejang-dong’. Director Kang-yoon Lee says that it is necessary to distinguish between the ‘fact’ and the ‘perception’ of the people regarding the large intestine problem.

“There are not many facts related to the Daejang-dong allegation, but it is uncomfortable and annoying that there is something in the public perception. It should be said that Jae-myung Lee is trapped in some unspecified and opaque words. Of course, it would be unfair for candidate Lee Jae-myung. I am talking about the greatest achievement since Dangun, but people are not interested in that, but rather, ‘What kind of shit happened when you built five apartments in one small building?’”

He added, “What’s more serious is that if the suspicion goes on for another three to four weeks, it will form a fixed image to a certain extent, which I think is the worst.” The full picture of the incident is not revealed, but the public perception continues to one side, so it is not responding to the fact that it is becoming habitually hardened.

“I said a few days ago that I was going to have a special prosecutor, but I missed the timing.”

Storydot CEO Yoo Seung-chan, a political consultant, used the terms ‘reality’ and ‘perception’.

“Even if the reality of the Daejang-dong incident that Candidate Jae-myung Lee thinks is 100% correct, there is a big gap with the public’s perception and perception. As it was repeated, the ethos collapsed. Relations with the public have been severed. No matter what you say, you can’t be trusted. As such a situation persists, support does not expand and tends to be trapped in a box no matter what policy is introduced or whatever situation arises. It has become difficult to break through the box without solving the large intestine problem.”

Blaming the wrong frame alone cannot overcome this problem, he added.

“The whole frame is wrongly formed, and it is not appealing that this is also because of the media. The story of Lee Jae-myung will begin to be heard in the people’s ears only when we overcome the situation of being locked in the Daejang-dong issue.”

He added, “The attitude to dealing with issues is more important than issues in elections.”

“The reason that candidate Hong Jun-pyo received enthusiastic support from the 2030 generation in the People’s Power primary was because he was the only candidate who said he did not know what he did not know and said that he did something wrong. In the end, it is not support for worldviews or policies that wins support, but support for attitudes. Yoo Seung-min eventually got 7%, but choosing the president is not a knowledge competition. There’s a huge gap between what voters say life is getting tougher and what the political establishment claim they’ve done well. If you don’t have a humble attitude, it’s not easy to change your mind now. Of course, since Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon is not a good candidate, Jae-Myung Lee should take the time to conduct a strategic review as a whole. There is still time.”

Controversy surrounding the party’s predecessor is also not insignificant. The Democratic Party, which confirmed the candidates almost a month earlier than the people’s power, announced the organization chart for the Mammoth’s election.

Looking at the election committee table confirmed on November 8, it is noteworthy that 169 Democratic lawmakers have been placed forward. Among the candidates who were candidates in the party’s primary process, Candidate Mi-ae Chu served as the Committee for Social Conversion, Rep. Lee Kwang-jae as the Future Economic Committee and Rep. Kim Doo-gwan as the Chairman of the Balanced Development Committee. Candidate Lee Nak-yeon, who had established an angle with Candidate Jae-myung Lee’s basic income as a new welfare policy, is a form of joining the New Welfare Committee. In the case of Candidate Yong-Jin Park, he is supposed to participate in the Youth and Future Politics Committee on the ‘Committee (Policy Committee, Special Committee) under the Election Committee’, which is drawn in a separate table. The above four lawmakers who participated in the primary are directly chairing the committee, whereas Nak-yeon Lee and Se-kyun Jeong serve as a standing advisor along with former CEO Hae-chan Lee. will serve as the co-chairman). In other words, rather than the blast furnace camp claimed by the Democratic Party, it seems that the primary candidates will take the chair and fight under the camp.

“We have created a camp, but it is not a working camp. It’s a camp that doesn’t have practical skills and is just a point of view.”

Election consultant Park Shin-yong-cheol, senior research fellow at The Change Plan, said:

“In elections, the more desperate side wins. The current Democrats don’t seem desperate. They couldn’t find a reason for themselves why they needed to re-create and maintain the government. The opposition party is sharpening its sword to retake the government with antithesis, but the ruling party, which should be defended, is unable to do so. The provinces are just preparing for the June elections. That’s why the ratings can’t go up. Let alone harmony, it seems that mechanical bonding will not be easy.” Is it really going the way it is?

Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung and his wife Hye-kyung Kim enter the Gocheok Sky Dome in Seoul on the afternoon of November 18 to watch the 4th game of the Korean Series between KT Wiz and Doosan Bears in the '2021 Shinhan Bank SOL KBO League'.  Parliamentary photojournalists

Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung and his wife Hye-kyung Kim enter the Gocheok Sky Dome in Seoul on the afternoon of November 18 to watch the 4th game of the Korean Series between KT Wiz and Doosan Bears in the ‘2021 Shinhan Bank SOL KBO League’. Parliamentary photojournalists

■ A spoon, not a furnace?

On November 15, 10 first-election members of the Democratic Party held a press conference saying, “We demand a change in the Democratic Party’s election leader and five institutional reforms.” They argued that “the party’s election committee is composed of members of the National Assembly and players,” and that “it is a structure that makes it difficult for young people, women, the common people, the underprivileged, and the socially disadvantaged, to participate as well.” They then suggested a solution, saying, “We need to recruit outside talent who can represent the voices of the field, deploy them, and give them real authority.

A striking item is the ‘Five Institutional Reform Tasks to Lay Down Political Privileges’ mentioned below. ▲For next year’s local elections, mandatory nomination of young people for the right to vote in all constituencies with three or more members nationwide ▲Promotion of legislation to limit the immunity of members of the National Assembly ▲Prohibition of exceeding three-term members of the National Assembly ▲Democratic replacement of the party’s election system ▲Change in the method of selecting candidates for the National Assembly Speaker and Standing Chairperson. It raises the problem that the number is wrong. Criticism may arise that the claim focuses on the ‘rice cake’ of the next June local election rather than the immediate presidential election. Prohibiting more than three terms or changing the method of selecting the chairman is a matter that cannot be decided by any party alone before ‘political privilege’. Commissioner Park Shin-yong-cheol said, “Everyone is falling behind, so it will be frustrating even as candidate Lee Jae-myung. The fact that the former policy chief Jeong Jin-sang, who is my closest aide, was appointed as the deputy chief of staff even though I knew that the opposition was going to be on the offensive, there was no one I could trust in the party and the camp.”

Requires authoritative leadership to coordinate candidates

In the end, is it difficult to create reversal momentum? Byung-Chun Choi, Vice President of the Institute for Democracy

“In politics, anything is possible. What is important is the question of the direction in which the will of the majority is gathered,” he added. He said, “Looking at Lee Jae-myung’s actions after the election, he went all-in to promote the ‘spicy, left-wing policy’ rather than the executive power and experience that were his strengths, rather than the Moon Jae-in administration, and only his shortcomings were highlighted. It is important,” he added.

It is pointed out that it is important to restore stability through a coordinated move independently of whether a candidate is competent or not. It is pointed out that no matter who Lee Hae-chan is former president or whoever is, authoritative leadership is desperately needed, not playing alone as a candidate.

Rep. Jin Seong-joon, who is in charge of the situation department of the Election Commission, said, “As suggested, right after the primary election, there was a need to form a furnace election committee that encompasses lawmakers who participated in each camp. It is true that there was a problem of nun-gazing,” he said.

Regarding the point that the current disparity in approval ratings is not going to harden until March next year, he said, “I’m not sure if it’s an argument that carefully looks at the results of the polls, but I don’t think it’s the attitude of a politician to say you’ve already lost.” Regarding the point that the attitude toward the Daejang-dong allegation is important, he said, “Since the public’s anger over the failure of the real estate is so great, some people may think, ‘Lee Jae-myung, you are too much. “There is an aspect of force majeure, but for us, if we vigorously push ahead with the National Assembly legislation related to development profits and the recovery of unearned income, I think it can open up a different perspective on institutional and legal issues,” he added.

It is known that Lee Jae-myung’s presidential campaign was set up in the Yongsan Building in Yeouido. Candidates’ office, candidate’s secretary’s office, public affairs office, and situation room were prepared in Yeouido.

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