As the prediction that the memory semiconductor cold wave will end, the share price of the semiconductor industry, the leader of the KOSPI, is on the rise. However, concerns about premature tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) persist, and the rebound in semiconductor stocks is expected to have a limited impact on the overall rise of the KOSPI.
On the 23rd, Samsung Electronics, the major stock of the KOSPI, finished trading at 75,300 won, up 0.53% (400 won) from the previous day. It rose 1.42% on the 19th and surged 5.20% on the 22nd, and continued its upward trend for three consecutive trading days. Hynix, the second largest by market capitalization, rose 1.36% on the 19th, and surged 7.17% the day before. However, it closed at 119,000 won, down 0.42 percent on the day.
In the background of this upward trend lies the prospect of the stock market that the ‘semiconductor winter’ is coming to an end. On the 19th (local time), US market analysis company Evercore ISI released a report that the price of memory semiconductors will pass the trough in the first half of next year. On the same day, Citigroup also analyzed that the DRAM price adjustment is “going towards the end” due to recovery in PC and server demand. Thanks to this, the stock price of Micron, one of the global ‘big three’ along with Samsung Electronics and Hynix, surged 7.8%. This is in contrast to the time when Morgan Stanley’s stock prices plummeted after Morgan Stanley published a report titled ‘Memory, Winter is Coming’ in August, predicting sluggish memory semiconductor demand and price declines.
Domestic stock market experts are also giving positive outlooks one after another. Do-yeon Choi, a researcher at Shinhan Financial Investment, said, “The recent share price rebound is a process of reversing excessive concerns. Lee Soo-bin, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said, “We expect that the DRAM memory semiconductor downturn will be short.
On the other hand, Park Yu-ak, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, “The short-term surge in stock prices feels a bit burdensome at this point.
It is unclear whether the rebound in the semiconductor industry will lead to the KOSPI’s breakout of the box. On the 23rd, the KOSPI closed at 2997.33, down 15.92 points (0.53%) on the 23rd, just one day after recovering the 3,000 line due to a surge in semiconductor stocks. On the 22nd (local time), Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who have been re-appointed for a second term, expressed concerns about inflation, raising concerns about the timing of the Fed’s rate hike earlier.