Is the theory of state stability higher than the theory of government judgment?

4 NBS survey results including Korea Research
‘The ruling party voted for a stable state affairs’ 45%
‘Opposition voting for state operation judgment’ 40%
The figure ‘reversed’ for the first time in 7 months since May

Democratic Party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung and People’s Strength presidential candidate Yoon Seok-yeol are on their way to participate in the ‘National Assembly Proposal Meeting for Special Bill to Response to Local Extinction for Balanced National Development’ held at the Fairmont Ambassador Seoul Grand Ballroom on the afternoon of the 28th. / National Assembly photojournalist

The results of a public opinion poll showed that the ‘theory of national stability’ was higher than the ‘theory of judgment on the government’. Since last May, about half of the people have chosen to judge the government rather than to stabilize the state, but the figure has been reversed in seven months. As the results show that the approval ratings of Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Seok-yeol, the presidential candidate for the People’s Strength, are also widening within the margin of error, attention is focused on the impact of such public opinion on future elections.

The results of the National Indicators Survey (NBS) announced on the 30th by Embrain Public, K-Stat Research, Korea Research, and Korea Research (for 1,000 people on the 27th and 29th, 95% error of 95% confidence level ±3.1% points), ‘Stable state management operation 45% of the respondents said that they should vote for the ruling party candidate for the sake of government stability, and 40% said that they should vote for the opposition candidate to judge the management of state affairs. Compared to last week, the theory of national stability rose by 3 percentage points, and the theory of government judgment fell by 2 percentage points.

It is the first time in 7 months since the results of a survey conducted by the same institution in the 4th week of May, the results of the theory of state stability surpassing the theory of government judgment. As a result of the NBS survey in the 4th week of May, 45% of the respondents said that the theory of state stability was the theory of government judgment and 43%.

Since then, the regime judgment theory has been engulfed in various criticisms, such as the failure of the current government’s real estate measures, to rise and fall by around 50% in each survey, maintaining a difference of 5-6 percentage points and a maximum of 20 percentage points higher than the state stability theory.

When the theory of government judgment was highest, the survey in the 1st week of November of the same institution recorded 54%. At this time, the national stability theory was 34%, and the gap was 20 percentage points. It was also the time when Yoon Seok-yeol was elected as the People’s Power presidential candidate.

A similar trend was also observed in the results of a survey of 1002 people from the 27th to the 28th of the 27th and 28th by the Korea Social Opinion Research Institute (KSOI) (±3.1% points at the 95% confidence level of sampling error).

In the survey, when asked about the nature of the next presidential election, 47.6% answered ‘replacement of government’, higher than 40.8% who answered ‘re-creation of government’. It is the first time in two weeks that the same institution’s change of government poll results have fallen below 50%, but considering the record that most have risen above 50% this year, a downward trend is evident. In a survey conducted by the same institution a month ago (November 23-24), 50.5% of the respondents said regime change, and 42.3% said the idea of ​​regime re-creation.

This appears to be a result of being linked to the approval ratings of presidential candidates. As a result of the NBS survey that day, Candidate Lee’s approval rate was 39%, and Candidate Yoon’s approval rate was 28%. The gap between the two candidates was 11 percentage points, out of the margin of error. Candidate Lee’s approval rating in the same institution rose 4 percentage points from last week, while Yoon’s fell 1 percentage point. In the KSOI survey on the 27th and 28th, candidate Lee recorded 42.9%, leading to candidate Yoon (37.8%) within the margin of error.

Analysts say that the direct reason for the rise of the theory of state stability over the theory of judgment on the government is that the recent controversy surrounding the family-related suspicions of each candidate and the policies, words and actions of the individual candidates influenced them. It is an interpretation that Yoon is being hit somewhat more than Lee in various allegations surrounding the presidential candidates. In the KSOI survey results announced on the same day, 48.5% answered ‘Candidate Yoon’ to the question of which candidate would be more negatively affected by problems, such as the suspicion of illegal gambling of Lee’s eldest son and the false history of Kim Kun-hee, the wife of Candidate Yoon. 40.6% of the respondents answered ‘this candidate’.

However, an opinion poll expert analyzed during the phone call on the same day, “It is difficult to see that the government judgment theory itself is fading, as the current government’s actual parts such as real estate policy still exist and the economic difficulties for the people’s livelihood due to the spread of Corona 19 are serious.” He said, “As the presidential election draws near, strengthening the competition for vision and policy among the candidates will be the only way out of the competition between the theory of state stability and the theory of government judgment,” he said.

For more information, visit the website of the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee.

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