The last variable in the presidential election is ‘unification of opposition candidates’… Who is the final winner?

People’s Power presidential candidate Yoon Seok-yeol and People’s Party presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo pass by at the 2022 small and medium-sized business New Year’s greetings meeting on the 5th. joint photo shoot

The variable that can shake the final presidential election is the ‘unification of opposition candidates’. Can the People’s Power and the People’s Party, which once discussed the merger in earnest, unite and hold the 20th presidential election? Will Seok-Yeol Yoon and Cheol-Soo Ahn finish the race as they have promised? If unification, when will that point be? In Power of the People, Candidate Seok-Yeol Yoon, who is continuing the phase of rising approval ratings, can ‘win by herself’ and repeatedly emphasizes that “there is no unification with Candidate Cheol-Soo Ahn.” The People’s Party is also preoccupied with beating candidates for both sides, saying, “It is impossible to think of unification with candidates who are not suitable for the public’s eye level.” The Democratic Party of Korea expects Ahn’s ‘completion’. For Candidate Jae-myung Lee, who is still in the 30% range, the ‘multilateral composition’ promoted by Ahn is the best. On the other hand, the more this situation continues, the stronger the pressure from the supporters will be on whether the candidates Yun Seok-yeol and Ahn Cheol-soo can take responsibility for the failure to change the regime due to the division of the opposition. Considering that the 13th and 14th of next month are the registration dates for presidential candidates, the physical time for unification is insufficient. Even if discussions about unification begin right after the Lunar New Year holiday, ten days later is the registration date for candidates. In the case of unification negotiations between political parties, it is difficult to find a proper method other than a public opinion poll, but it is a pressing time to negotiate specific issues such as survey subjects, questions, and detailed questions. The success or failure of the unification of the opposition is likely to be determined by a public opinion poll released immediately after the Lunar New Year holiday. If Candidate Ahn maintains a 15% approval rating, he will be able to receive the full cost of the election, thereby boosting the ‘possibility of completing the race’. On the other hand, if the difference in approval ratings between the two candidates becomes significant, the possibility of unification through joint government negotiations or a ‘declaration of support’ method cannot be excluded. An official from People’s Power said, “The best strategy we can do to increase our negotiating power in preparation for unification is to raise the approval rating to the maximum.” On the other hand, Candidate Ahn has a strong will to finish. From the 2012 presidential election to last year’s April 7 Seoul mayor by-election, the goal is to break the ‘trauma’ that has repeatedly failed in the unification process.

Candidates Roh Moo-hyun and Jung Mong-joon hugging each other and showing solidarity after the announcement of an agreement on unification of candidates on November 28, 2002.  Hankyoreh data photo

Candidates Roh Moo-hyun and Jung Mong-joon hugging each other and showing solidarity after the announcement of an agreement on unification of candidates on November 28, 2002. Hankyoreh data photo

In previous presidential elections, the card of unifying candidates was a key variable in the presidential race. Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun succeeded in taking power through electoral union and unification. In the 1997 presidential election, Kim Dae-jung National Assembly candidate developed the experience of joint nomination with the Liberal Democrats Alliance led by President Kim Jong-pil in 1996, and divided the positions of president and prime minister, promoted constitutional reform of the cabinet system, and appointed economic ministries and elected one of the heads of metropolitan organizations. An agreement was reached on the DJP coalition to distribute to the LDP. Candidate Dae-Jung Kim, who was able to break away from the theory of color and Honam color by unifying the candidates in the form of a regional coalition between Honam and Chungcheong, succeeded in replacing the government with 40.27% of the votes, defeating the Grand National Party candidate Lee Hoi-chang (38.74%). In the 2002 presidential election, Democratic Party candidate Roh Moo-hyun succeeded in unification by winning an opinion poll against Chung Mong-joon, a candidate for National Unity 21, two days before registration. Candidate Chung withdrew his support for Candidate Roh on the eve of the election, but rather mobilized votes, and Roh was able to defeat Candidate Hoi-chang Lee (46.6%) with 48.9% of the votes.

On November 18, 2012, presidential candidate Moon Jae-in of the Democratic United Party and independent presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo shake hands as they leave the conference room after agreeing to resume negotiations on the unification method in Dalgabi in Jeong-dong, Jung-gu, Seoul on the evening of the 18th.  By Lee Jung-woo, senior staff reporter woo@hani.co.kr

On November 18, 2012, presidential candidate Moon Jae-in of the Democratic United Party and independent presidential candidate Ahn Cheol-soo shake hands as they leave the conference room after agreeing to resume negotiations on the unification method in Dalgabi in Jeong-dong, Jung-gu, Seoul on the evening of the 18th. By Lee Jung-woo, senior staff reporter [email protected]

In the 2012 presidential election, Democratic United Party candidate Moon Jae-in and independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo tried to unify against Saenuri Party candidate Park Geun-hye. The two sides continued tug-of-war negotiations without concessions, and as candidate Ahn suddenly resigned just before registration, candidate Moon emerged as the opposition leader. However, the final winner was Candidate Geun-Hye Park (Candidate Jae-In Moon, 48.02%), who received 51.55% of the votes. How about this time? Eom Kyung-young, director of the Institute for the Spirit of the Ages, said, “As candidate Yoon continues to rise, the so-called ‘Ahn Cheol-su test operation’ seems to have the intention to keep the de facto unification effect working. It seems decisive whether it can maintain the % level. If it falls below that, in fact, unification by public opinion will begin.” Reporter Kim Mina [email protected]



Reference-www.hani.co.kr

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